Tempus AI

Overview

Industry: AI-Powered Precision Medicine & Health Data Analytics Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois, USA Employees: ~2,400 (as of 2024) Website: https://www.tempus.com

Tempus AI is a leading precision medicine company founded by Eric Lefkofsky in 2015, established shortly after his wife was diagnosed with breast cancer. The company leverages artificial intelligence and advanced data analytics to create "Intelligent Diagnostics" that integrate multimodal patient data—including genomics, pathology, radiology, clinical records, and longitudinal outcomes—to personalize cancer care and accelerate drug development. Tempus went public on Nasdaq on June 14, 2024, under ticker TEM, with a market capitalization of approximately $10.2 billion. The company operates a dual-revenue model: diagnostics (oncology, hereditary cancer, cardiology, radiology) and data/applications (licensing clinical and genomic data to pharma and biotech firms for research and development).

Tempus has built one of the world's most extensive libraries of multimodal clinical and molecular data, processing records from over 4,500 U.S. hospitals. This data asset includes approximately 38 million research records with longitudinal follow-up results, over 7 billion clinical notes, more than 1 million cancer patients with rich molecular profiling, around 3 million genomic sequences from hereditary cancer testing, and over 7 million digitized pathology slides. This data moat has positioned Tempus as a critical infrastructure player at the intersection of precision oncology, real-world evidence generation, and therapeutic development.

Products & Services

Intelligent Diagnostics Platform (Tempus xT, Tempus Hub)

Description: AI-driven diagnostic testing platform that integrates patient phenotypic, morphologic, and molecular data with EHR outcomes to provide clinically contextualized genomic reports. Tempus Hub is a physician-facing workflow platform enabling test ordering, results tracking, and treatment planning with AI-powered insights.
Target market: Oncology, cardiology, radiology, and depression diagnosis; hospital systems and academic medical centers; pathologists and oncologists
Pricing model: Laboratory testing fees paid by payers and patients; platform access typically negotiated with health systems

Genomic Profiling Services (xT CDx, Hereditary, MRD, RNA testing)

Description: FDA-registered NGS-based in vitro diagnostic testing for oncology, hereditary cancer risk assessment, minimal residual disease (MRD) monitoring, and therapy selection. Services include DNA sequencing (648 genes), RNA profiling, liquid biopsy, and MSI/TMB assessment.
Target market: Oncology centers, hereditary cancer clinics, therapy monitoring programs
Pricing model: Laboratory test fees; volume-based contracts with healthcare systems

Digital Pathology Suite (Paige Predict)

Description: AI-powered histopathology analysis platform acquired through the Paige acquisition in 2025. Paige Predict analyzes standard H&E slides to predict 123 biomarkers across 16 cancer types (including NSCLC, prostate, breast, pancreatic, colorectal) using deep learning models trained on 7 million clinically annotated digitized slides.
Target market: Pathologists, oncologists, tissue-limited diagnostics scenarios
Pricing model: Per-test or per-slide licensing; institutional agreements

Data Licensing & Applications (Tempus OS, Insights Platform, Tempus One)

Description: Pharma and biotech licensing of de-identified clinical and genomic datasets for drug development, real-world evidence generation, trial recruitment, patient identification, and protocol optimization. Tempus One is an AI-enabled research assistant for rapid insights extraction.
Target market: Pharmaceutical firms (95% of top 20 pharma), biotechs, contract research organizations, academic medical centers
Pricing model: Multi-year data licensing contracts; Total Contract Value (TCV) model with ongoing per-query or per-patient fees

Specialized AI Algorithms (Immune Profile Score, HRD-RNA, p-MSI)

Description: Proprietary AI-derived biomarker tests including the Immune Profile Score (IPS) for immunotherapy response prediction, HRD-RNA algorithm for homologous recombination deficiency detection, and p-MSI for prostate cancer MSI assessment.
Target market: Oncology, immunotherapy patient selection, cancer genomics research
Pricing model: Component of comprehensive genomic testing or standalone algorithm licensing

Market Position & Industry Dynamics

Market segment: Precision oncology diagnostics, real-world evidence platforms, AI-enabled drug development tools Estimated market share: Estimated ~15-20% of U.S. precision oncology diagnostics market (based on volume and test capabilities)

TAM (Total Addressable Market):

Core diagnostics segment: $40 billion TAM growing at 30% annually (per Mizuho analyst estimates)
Broader precision oncology market: $201.96 billion projected by 2030 (per market research)
Data licensing/pharma services: Estimated $20-30 billion TAM for real-world evidence and precision medicine data services

SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market):

U.S. oncology diagnostics: ~$8-10 billion (Tempus's primary focus)
International expansion (Europe, Asia): Emerging; estimated $2-3 billion opportunity

Industry Trends:

AI and Foundation Models in Diagnostics: Rapid adoption of multimodal AI models and large language models for clinical decision support, diagnostic biomarker prediction, and treatment response forecasting. Tempus's investment in foundation models (e.g., Fuses program) aligns with this trend.
Real-World Evidence Ascendancy in Drug Development: Regulatory acceptance of RWE for clinical trial recruitment, patient stratification, comparator arms, and post-marketing surveillance is increasing. FDA and EMA guidance increasingly favor RWE integration.
Data Consolidation and M&A: Consolidation of genomic testing, EHR data, and pathology AI platforms to achieve multimodal data integration at scale. Tempus's Paige acquisition exemplifies this trend.
Liquid Biopsy and Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Expansion: Shift toward blood-based tests for early detection, treatment monitoring, and recurrence prediction; increasingly integrated into standard-of-care oncology protocols.
Precision Medicine Beyond Oncology: Expansion into cardiology, infectious diseases, mental health, and rare diseases, driven by AI enablement of smaller datasets and cross-disease biomarker discovery.

Key differentiators:

Multimodal Data Integration: Unlike competitors focused on single data modalities (e.g., Foundation Medicine on genomics, Flatiron Health on EHR), Tempus integrates genomics, pathology, radiology, clinical notes, and outcomes into unified AI models.
Scale of Longitudinal Follow-Up: Tempus's 38 million research records include longitudinal outcomes and treatment responses, enabling outcome-driven biomarker discovery unavailable to competitors.
Dual Revenue Model: Combining high-margin diagnostics with high-volume data licensing creates revenue diversification and cross-subsidization of AI R&D.
Breadth of Cancer Coverage: xT CDx covers 648 genes across 16+ cancer types, broader than most competitors; supplemented by Paige's pathology AI across equivalent breadth.
Provider Relationships and Distribution: Partnerships with major health systems (NYU Langone, Northwestern Medicine) and 95% market penetration of top 20 pharma provide durable competitive moats.

Positioning: Tempus positions itself as the "AI OS for precision oncology"—a foundational platform integrating all data modalities needed for personalized cancer care and drug development. This contrasts with competitors' narrower positioning (Foundation Medicine as genomics provider; Flatiron as EHR analytics; ConcertAI as clinical data platform).

Leadership Team

Name	Title	Notable Background
Eric Lefkofsky	Founder and Chief Executive Officer	Law degree (U of Michigan), serial entrepreneur; co-founded Groupon, Echo Global Logistics, InnerWorkings, Mediaocean; founded Tempus in 2015 after wife's breast cancer diagnosis
Jim Rogers	Chief Financial Officer	Joined Tempus finance team in 2017; prior 6 years at Groupon in various finance roles
Shane Colley	Chief Technology Officer	Leading AI/ML platform architecture and foundation model development
Theodore J. Leonsis	Board Director, Chair of Nominating & Corporate Governance Committee	Co-founder and General Partner of Revolution Growth; founder/chairman of Monumental Sports & Entertainment; joined Tempus board January 2019
Jennifer A. Doudna, Ph.D.	Board Director	Nobel Laureate in Chemistry (2020) for CRISPR–Cas9 gene editing; UC Berkeley professor; joined Tempus board April 2021; advises on genomics innovation
Eric D. Belcher	Board Director	Chief Executive Officer of Numerator (formerly Market Track); joined board January 2019

Financials

Revenue (Public Disclosure):

2025: $1.27 billion (83.4% YoY growth)
Q4 2025: $367.2 million (83.0% YoY growth)
2024: ~$693 million (~30% growth vs. 2023)
Diagnostics revenue (2025): $955.4 million (111.5% YoY growth); Oncology volume +26% YoY, Hereditary +29% YoY
Data and Applications revenue (2025): $316.4 million (30.9% YoY growth); Insights +38.0% YoY

Profitability:

Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA (Q3 2025): $1.5 million (vs. -$21.8M in Q3 2024)
Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA (Q4 2025): $12.9 million (vs. -$7.8M in Q4 2024)
Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA: -$7.4 million (near breakeven, improved from prior year losses)
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance: ~$65 million (path to sustained profitability)

Valuation & Market Cap:

IPO (June 14, 2024): Listed on Nasdaq under ticker TEM
Current market cap: ~$10.2 billion (as of Feb 2026)
Consensus price target (15 analysts): $77.86; ratings: 8 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell

Funding History (Pre-IPO):

Total raised: ~$1.05 billion across 8 rounds
Series C (2017): $70M+ led by NEA and Revolution Growth
Series G (2020): $100M at $5B valuation (Baillie Gifford, Franklin Templeton, Novo Holdings, NEA, T. Rowe Price)
Series G-2 (pre-IPO, 2024): $200M from SoftBank; additional $250M convertible debt
Major investors: NEA, Revolution, Baillie Gifford, Franklin Templeton, T. Rowe Price, Novo Holdings, Google, SoftBank

Total Contract Value (TCV):

As of Dec 31, 2025: >$1.1 billion TCV (record)
FY2025: Signed data agreements with 70+ customers (pharma and biotechs including AstraZeneca, GSK, BMS, Pfizer, Novartis, Merck, Abbvie, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, Incyte, Servier)

Competitive Landscape

Direct competitors:

ConcertAI — Leading oncology RWE data and AI SaaS company; partnership with Foundation Medicine (Jan 2025) now covers ~500k clinically-linked patients; strength in clinical data depth; weakness vs. Tempus in genomic integration and diagnostics business
Foundation Medicine (Roche subsidiary) — Market leader in tumor genomic profiling (FoundationOne); strength in genomic data scale and clinical validation; weakness in multimodal integration and lacks diagnostics revenue model
Guardant Health — Leading ctDNA/liquid biopsy company (Guardant360); launched GuardantINFORM platform combining genomic and clinical data; strength in blood-based testing; narrow focus on liquid biopsy vs. Tempus's tissue+blood+imaging
Natera — Multimodal genomics company (SignateraCx, other products) with 250k+ tumor exomes and 1M+ plasma timepoints; strength in genetic data; similar multimodal aspirations to Tempus but smaller data scale
PathAI — Leading digital pathology AI company (~$240M raised); strength in pathology AI and lab workflow; lacks integrated diagnostics and pharma data licensing; now in direct competition post-Paige acquisition
Flatiron Health (Roche subsidiary) — Leading EHR-derived oncology data platform; strength in clinical data granularity; lacks genomics and diagnostics business; primarily targets pharma
Myriad Genetics — Legacy clinical genomics; strength in hereditary cancer testing; weakness in AI, data assets, and multimodal integration; increasingly acquired for specific test portfolios rather than platform

Adjacent competitors:

Illumina — Sequencing technology provider; platform dependency for genomic data generation
IQVIA — Contract research and data analytics giant; broader healthcare data but less oncology-focused depth
Syapse, Owkin, SOPHiA GENETICS, Inspirata — Smaller precision medicine data or oncology analytics platforms; niche focus and limited scale

Competitive advantages: Tempus's advantages vs. peers include (1) multimodal data integration at scale unavailable to single-modality competitors; (2) longitudinal outcomes data enabling outcome-driven biomarker discovery; (3) dual revenue model providing diversification and reinvestment capital; (4) breadth of cancer coverage via xT and Paige platforms; (5) dominant market position with 95% of top 20 pharma as customers; (6) established health system distribution relationships.

Competitive vulnerabilities: (1) Paige acquisition still being integrated; competing pathology AI platforms (PathAI) have strong independent positions; (2) Recent entry of ConcertAI+Foundation Medicine combination dilutes Tempus's advantage in integrated data; (3) Roche's ownership of Foundation Medicine and Flatiron provides massive capital and distribution advantages in pharma relationships; (4) International expansion underway but still nascent compared to domestic dominance; (5) Genomic testing faces commoditization pressure as xT testing volumes grow and pricing compression risk emerges; (6) Employee sentiment concerns (Glassdoor 2.9/5) may limit talent retention in high-competition AI/biotech hiring environment.

Strategic Assessment

Strengths

Unparalleled Multimodal Data Moat: Tempus's integrated dataset of 38M research records, 7B clinical notes, 7M digitized pathology slides, and 250 petabytes of data is the most comprehensive in oncology/precision medicine. Competitors own single modalities (Guardant: liquid biopsy; Foundation: genomics); Tempus's advantage compounds over time as new data drives superior AI model performance.
Revenue Scale and Diversification at Inflection: 2025 revenue of $1.27B with 83% YoY growth and simultaneous achievement of near-breakeven Adjusted EBITDA (-$7.4M) demonstrates successful path to profitability. Dual revenue model (diagnostics $955M + data/apps $316M) reduces dependency on single revenue stream; data licensing margins are higher than diagnostics, enabling reinvestment in AI R&D.
Entrenched Pharma Partnerships with High Switching Costs: 95% of top 20 pharma companies and 70+ customers signed in FY2025 (including AstraZeneca, GSK, BMS, Pfizer, Novartis, Merck) represent durable, multi-year contracts. Total Contract Value of $1.1B+ provides revenue visibility and reduces customer acquisition risk; strategic collaborations (e.g., AstraZeneca partnership for foundation model development) raise competitive barriers.
Proven M&A and Integration Capability: Paige acquisition (2025) successfully expanded into digital pathology; OneOme acquisition integrated genetic counseling platform. Ability to acquire and rapidly integrate complementary assets accelerates feature velocity and data moat expansion without organic-only constraints.
Board Credibility and Strategic Access: Jennifer Doudna (Nobel laureate, CRISPR pioneer) brings genomics credibility; Theodore Leonsis provides venture/investment network access; collectively, board lends scientific credibility critical for pharma/academic partnerships and regulatory relationships.

Weaknesses

Employee Sentiment and Cultural Challenges: Glassdoor rating of 2.9/5 (out of 5) with 40% recommendation rate indicates significant workplace satisfaction issues. Common complaints include lack of 401k matching, unclear PTO policies, management communication gaps, and organizational inefficiency. In competitive AI/biotech hiring market, poor employee sentiment creates retention risk for critical AI/ML talent, particularly post-IPO when equity compensation alone may not suffice.
Elevated Valuation and Growth Expectations: Market cap of $10.2B at $1.27B revenue implies ~8x revenue multiple; FY2026 guidance of $1.59B (25% growth) moderates from 2025's 83% pace. If growth decelerates further or profitability targets are missed, downside risk is significant. JPMorgan's February 2026 initiation with pessimistic view signals skepticism among institutional investors.
Diagnostics Testing Face Commoditization and Pricing Pressure: Oncology genomic testing is becoming commoditized as multiple competitors (Guardant, Natera, Foundation) offer similar breadth of gene panels. Reimbursement pressures and consolidation in hospital lab networks may compress diagnostic test pricing; diagnostics revenue growth must be sustained via volume gains and geographic expansion to offset unit price erosion.
International Expansion Still Nascent with Execution Risk: Investment of $150M allocated for international expansion (Europe, Asia) but footprint remains small relative to domestic market. International regulatory requirements (CE mark, PMDA approval), payer landscapes, and distribution partnerships add complexity; execution delays or market adoption shortfalls in Europe/Asia could underutilize capital.
Competitive Consolidation Threatens Market Position: ConcertAI+Foundation Medicine combination (announced Jan 2025) creates integrated real-world evidence + genomics competitor previously absent; Roche's ownership of both Foundation and Flatiron provides massive capital and pharma relationships that could eventually disintermediate Tempus. If Roche aggressively packages its own diagnostics+data offerings, Tempus's pharma customer relationships may face threat.

Opportunities

Foundation Model and Agentic AI Expansion: Tempus's Fuses program to develop the largest multimodal foundation model in oncology, in partnership with AstraZeneca and Pathos, positions the company at the frontier of generative AI in drug discovery. Foundation models enable transfer learning across cancer types and could unlock new biomarker discovery beyond supervised learning; Tempus is 12-18 months ahead of most competitors in this capability, creating a narrow window to establish defensibility before competitors catch up.
Digital Pathology and Algorithmic Test Portfolio Acceleration: Following Paige acquisition, Tempus can rapidly expand algorithmic biomarker tests (Paige Predict, p-MSI, HRD-RNA, IPS) leveraging the 7M pathology slide dataset. Each new algorithmic test adds high-margin, AI-driven diagnostic products; market for standalone AI pathology algorithms is nascent, offering first-mover advantage before PathAI, Proscia, or others scale comparable offerings.
Liquid Biopsy and Plasma Testing Expansion: Tempus is expanding liquid biopsy offerings (cfDNA, ctDNA, MRD testing) alongside tissue testing; 29% growth in hereditary cancer volume and emerging MRD market provide high-growth adjacencies. Liquid biopsy market is projected to grow faster than tissue testing due to non-invasive appeal and monitoring use cases; Tempus's integrated tissue+blood approach is differentiated vs. pure blood-focused competitors (Guardant, Natera).
Non-Oncology Expansion (Cardiology, Infectious Disease, Mental Health): Tempus has launched cardiology and depression testing products; psychiatric and cardiovascular precision medicine are early-stage markets with limited competition. Leveraging multimodal data integration capability to address 1-2 major non-oncology indications could 2-3x TAM without head-to-head competition with established oncology competitors.
Real-World Evidence as Standard in Regulatory Approval Pathways: FDA and EMA increasingly accept RWE for clinical trial recruitment, efficacy assessment, and post-marketing surveillance. If regulatory guidance continues to favor RWE (likely given cost pressures and trial recruitment challenges), Tempus's data licensing business could accelerate as pharma firms mandate RWE integration into clinical development. Current pharma contracts emphasize drug discovery; shift toward RWE for regulatory submissions would increase contract values and pharma dependency on Tempus data.

Threats

Genomic Testing Commoditization and Price Compression: Oncology genomic testing is increasingly commoditized with multiple qualified competitors (Foundation, Guardant, Natera). Health system consolidation (e.g., Mayo Clinic) and large payers (e.g., UnitedHealth) are establishing preferred lab testing partnerships, reducing choice. If xT testing reimbursement falls from ~$5-8K per test to $2-3K due to commodity pricing, diagnostics revenue growth must accelerate volume 2-3x to maintain revenue growth; uncertain if market volume growth can offset.
Roche-Owned Competitor Bundling (Foundation + Flatiron + Diagnostics): Roche owns Foundation Medicine (genomics leader), Flatiron Health (EHR analytics leader), and could bundle these with its own diagnostics and drug development services. If Roche aggressively markets integrated offering to pharma (leveraging existing pharma relationships and capital), Tempus's advantage in multimodal integration diminishes; Roche's scale and pharma relationships could displace Tempus in data licensing contracts.
New Entrant with Superior AI/LLM Approach: If a well-capitalized entrant (e.g., Google Health, Microsoft Research, or new startup with foundational AI advantages) launches a competing platform with superior foundation models or LLM-based analysis, Tempus's data moat alone may not sustain competitive advantage. AI/ML talent and compute costs are democratizing; data moat advantage may erode faster than expected if competitors invest heavily.
Regulatory Headwinds in Genomic Testing or RWE Use: FDA or EMS could tighten validation requirements for algorithmic tests (e.g., new guidance on LLM-based diagnostics), increasing time-to-market and validation costs. Conversely, RWE use in regulatory submissions could face restrictions if clinical trial outcomes diverge from RWE findings (patient heterogeneity, unmeasured confounders), reducing pharma demand for RWE data licensing.
Talent and Compensation Pressures in AI/ML Market: Intense competition for AI/ML talent in both healthcare and broader tech/AI sectors may pressure compensation costs. Employee sentiment concerns (Glassdoor 2.9/5) combined with post-IPO equity vesting could accelerate turnover of critical AI scientists and engineers, particularly if stock price underperforms or competitors offer superior comp/culture packages. Loss of key AI/ML talent could slow product innovation velocity.
Paige Integration Challenges and Competitive Response from PathAI: Paige integration may face execution challenges (data harmonization, model retraining, sales/channel alignment). PathAI, now in direct competition, may accelerate its digital pathology offerings and expand into analytics/data licensing to compete with Tempus's integrated model; PathAI's relative independence and focused mission may appeal to customers wary of Tempus's complex org structure.

Public Sentiment

Overall sentiment: Mixed to Positive — Strong positive sentiment from industry analysts, pharma partners, and healthcare providers regarding Tempus's data assets, AI capabilities, and market position; mixed sentiment among public investors due to elevated valuation relative to near-term profitability and competitive consolidation threats; negative employee sentiment indicating internal execution and culture challenges.

Customer sentiment: Strong positive sentiment from pharma and biotech partners, reflected in record TCV of $1.1B+ and expansion of contracts with top 20 pharma firms. Health systems view Tempus positively as provider of advanced genomic testing with high clinical utility. Limited publicly available customer reviews, but no major churn or negative commercial feedback reported.

Employee sentiment: Glassdoor rating of 2.9/5 (out of 5) is significantly below industry benchmarks (average biotech/healthtech: 3.5-4.0). Positive themes: "Great people and team environment," "Coworkers are great and very smart," "Strong mission that helps patients." Negative themes: "Lack of 401k matching," unclear PTO policies, management communication gaps, organizational inefficiency. Overall, 40% would recommend to a friend (below 50% benchmark for healthy organizations). Suggests internal culture/management issues despite strong external position.

Analyst sentiment: Largely positive, with 8 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell ratings among 15 analysts. Mizuho initiated coverage (Feb 19, 2026) with "Outperform" rating and $100 price target, citing $40B TAM and 30% annual growth in precision oncology diagnostics. Morgan Stanley maintained "Overweight" with $85 target. However, JPMorgan initiated coverage (Feb 2026) with pessimistic view, citing valuation and execution risks, signaling divergence among institutional investors. Consensus price target is $77.86, implying modest upside/downside from current levels.

Sentiment Drivers

Date	Event/Action	Impact	Direction
2025-12	ConcertAI + Foundation Medicine integration announced	Negative for Tempus narrative; signals potential competitive threat from Roche-owned assets	Negative
2025-01	Paige Predict launch and IPS study results published	Positive; demonstrates value of Paige acquisition and novel biomarker advantage	Positive
2026-02	FY2025 revenue $1.27B (83% growth), near-breakeven Adjusted EBITDA	Positive; validates growth sustainability and profitability path	Positive
2026-02	JPMorgan initiates coverage with pessimistic rating	Negative; signals concerns about valuation, execution, and competition	Negative
2025	Tempus Glassdoor reviews highlight culture/PTO issues	Negative; potential talent retention and execution risk signals	Negative
2025	AstraZeneca expanded strategic partnership for foundation model	Positive; validates AI/foundation model approach and deepens pharma relationships	Positive

Growth Vectors

Stated strategy: Tempus's stated growth strategy centers on (1) scaling diagnostics volume and geographic reach, (2) expanding data licensing contracts with pharma across therapeutic areas, (3) advancing AI/foundation models for biomarker discovery and drug development, and (4) international expansion (Europe, Asia). Management emphasizes precision medicine as inflection point driven by AI, with Tempus positioned as foundational infrastructure at the intersection of diagnostics and drug development.

Existing Market Expansion

Diagnostics Volume Growth in Oncology: Oncology genomic testing volume grew 26% YoY in 2025; hereditary cancer testing grew 29% YoY. Expansion driven by (a) hospital system partnerships (NYU Langone, Northwestern Medicine), (b) increasing reimbursement coverage for xT testing, (c) clinical evidence (e.g., Immune Profile Score study) supporting test adoption. Assumes continued payer coverage and health system adoption; vulnerable to pricing pressure.
Pharma Data Licensing Expansion: Data and Applications revenue grew 30.9% YoY in 2025, with 70+ customer contracts signed; Insights segment grew 38% YoY. Strategy includes vertical expansion (more data products per customer), horizontal expansion (new therapeutic areas, new geographies), and deeper integration of Tempus data into pharma's drug development workflows (trial recruitment, protocol optimization, patient stratification). Driven by increasing regulatory acceptance of RWE and pharma's cost-consciousness around R&D.
International Expansion (Europe, Asia): Invested $150M in international expansion; still nascent. Strategy includes establishing local regulatory presence (CE mark, PMDA approvals), building health system partnerships, and adapting to local payer/reimbursement models. Growth primarily through organic expansion rather than M&A; execution risk remains high.

New Market Opportunities

Foundation Models and Agentic AI for Drug Discovery: Tempus's Fuses program (in partnership with AstraZeneca and Pathos) aims to build the largest multimodal foundation model in oncology. Opportunity includes licensing foundation models to pharma for end-to-end drug discovery (target discovery, compound screening, clinical trial design, patient stratification). Market for LLM-based drug discovery tools is nascent; if successful, could open entirely new revenue stream and 2-3x pharma revenue opportunity.
Non-Oncology Precision Medicine Platforms: Tempus has launched cardiology and depression testing products. Expansion into other high-prevalence, high-cost conditions (e.g., type 2 diabetes, COPD, neurological diseases, rare genetic diseases) could leverage same multimodal data integration platform with new disease-specific AI models. Combined TAM of non-oncology precision medicine could 2-3x oncology opportunity.
Digital Pathology and Algorithmic Test Expansion: Post-Paige acquisition, opportunity to expand from current algorithmic tests (Paige Predict, p-MSI, HRD-RNA, IPS) to broader portfolio of AI-derived biomarkers. Potential 10-20 new algorithmic tests over next 3-5 years could add 20-30% incremental diagnostics revenue and establish Tempus as dominant digital pathology platform. Market for standalone algorithmic tests is high-margin and growing 40%+ annually.
Precision Medicine as Standard of Care in Oncology: If precision medicine (genomic + pathology + biomarker-driven testing) becomes standard of care for all cancer patients (vs. current 30-40% adoption), addressable market expands 2-3x. Tempus's position as leading provider of integrated precision medicine platform positions it to capture significant share of this expansion if adoption accelerates.

Growth Vector Assessment

Vector	Description	Evidence	Feasibility
Diagnostics Volume Expansion (Oncology + Non-Oncology)	Increase xT and other genomic testing volume through health system partnerships, payer coverage expansion, and clinical evidence.	Oncology volume +26% YoY (2025); Hereditary +29% YoY; IPS study and other clinical publications support adoption.	High — Momentum is clear; risk is pricing pressure as commoditization increases. Feasibility remains high if Tempus can expand distribution and demonstrate clinical outcomes.
Data Licensing to Pharma	Deepen and expand multi-year data licensing contracts with pharma across oncology and adjacent therapeutic areas; shift from pure data to integrated drug development services.	70+ customers signed in FY2025; 95% of top 20 pharma use Tempus data; TCV >$1.1B; data/apps revenue grew 30.9% YoY.	High — Pharma's need for RWE and precision medicine data is structural; Tempus's data moat and relationships are durable. Risk: Roche-owned competitors bundling alternative offerings.
Foundation Models and Agentic AI	Develop and license multimodal foundation models for drug discovery, clinical decision support, and biomarker discovery; expand from diagnostics to upstream R&D.	AstraZeneca expanded partnership (2025) for foundation model development; Fuses program underway. Still early-stage; foundation models in biopharma are nascent.	Medium-High — Technology trajectory supports models; Tempus's data assets provide advantage. Risk: Rapid commoditization of LLMs, competition from tech giants (Google Health, Microsoft Research), talent availability.
International Expansion	Replicate U.S. success in Europe and Asia; adapt multimodal platform to local regulatory and payer models; establish health system and pharma partnerships.	$150M invested; nascent operations in Europe and Asia. Revenue from international sales increasing but still small % of total.	Medium — Regulatory pathways are known (CE mark, PMDA); health system partnerships are feasible; payer reimbursement timelines are long. Execution risk is moderate-high due to unfamiliarity with local markets; expect 2-3 year ramp to material scale.
Digital Pathology and Algorithmic Test Expansion	Leverage Paige platform to rapidly develop and launch 10-20 new algorithmic biomarker tests; position Tempus as digital pathology leader alongside genomics.	Paige Predict launched (Jan 2026); p-MSI, HRD-RNA already deployed; 7M pathology slide dataset enables rapid algorithm development. Competitor PathAI has also accelerated.	High — Technical capability and dataset are strong; market demand is clear (Lumea partnership, health system interest). Risk: PathAI competition could slow adoption; integration of Paige talent and models still ongoing.
Foundation Model and Agentic AI for Drug Discovery	License foundation models and agentic AI workflows to pharma for end-to-end drug discovery (target ID → compound screening → trial design → patient stratification).	AstraZeneca partnership demonstrates proof-of-concept; market for LLM-based drug discovery is nascent and growing. Limited competitive offerings today.	Medium — Market opportunity is large but nascent; adoption will require behavioral change from pharma. Tempus's data moat is significant advantage. Risk: Tech giants or pure-play AI drug discovery startups could leapfrog with superior models or lower cost. Profitability of foundation model services unclear (margin pressure from OpenAI/Claude scale).

Discovered Entities

People

Eric Lefkofsky | Founder and CEO | https://www.tempus.com/team_members/eric-lefkofsky/ | https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericlefkofsky/
Jim Rogers | Chief Financial Officer | No dedicated URL available
Shane Colley | Chief Technology Officer | No dedicated URL available
Jennifer A. Doudna, Ph.D. | Board Director | https://www.tempus.com/team_members/4687/ | https://investors.tempus.com/board-member/jennifer-doudna-phd
Theodore J. Leonsis | Board Director, Chair of Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee | https://www.tempus.com/team_members/ted-leonsis/ | https://www.linkedin.com/in/tedleonsis/
Eric D. Belcher | Board Director | https://investors.tempus.com/corporate-governance/board-of-directors

Competitors

ConcertAI | Leading oncology real-world evidence and AI SaaS platform; recently integrated with Foundation Medicine data assets (Jan 2025) to offer 500k+ clinically-linked patients; competes on clinical depth; strength in trial acceleration and RWE; weakness in genomics integration and diagnostics business vs. Tempus.
Foundation Medicine (Roche subsidiary) | Market leader in tumor genomic profiling and NGS-based testing; strength in genomic data scale and clinical validation; weakness in multimodal data integration (lacks EHR/clinical/pathology integration) and limited diagnostics revenue model compared to Tempus; recently integrated with ConcertAI to strengthen RWE position.
Guardant Health | Leading ctDNA/liquid biopsy company (Guardant360 platform); launched GuardantINFORM platform combining genomic and clinical data; strength in blood-based testing and liquid biopsy market; weakness in tissue pathology integration and limited AI/algorithmic test portfolio vs. Tempus's Paige Predict suite.
Natera | Multimodal genomics company offering SignateraCx and other precision medicine products; 250k+ tumor exomes and 1M+ plasma timepoints; strength in genetic data depth; weakness in scale vs. Tempus (smaller dataset), limited clinical/EHR integration, and lack of established diagnostics business model.
PathAI | Leading independent digital pathology AI company (~$240M raised); strength in pathology AI development and lab workflow integration; weakness in genomic integration, lacks comprehensive clinical dataset, limited pharma data licensing model, and now faces direct competition from Tempus's Paige acquisition.
Flatiron Health (Roche subsidiary) | Leading EHR-derived oncology data platform specializing in clinical data analytics and trial recruitment; strength in clinical data granularity and health system relationships; weakness in genomic integration, limited diagnostics capabilities, primarily targets pharma vs. patient diagnostics, and owned by Roche.
Myriad Genetics | Legacy clinical genomics company; strength in hereditary cancer testing and established patient relationships; weakness in AI capabilities, limited data assets, narrow product portfolio, and increasingly losing market share to Tempus and Foundation Medicine in genomic testing.
Guardant Health + ConcertAI (Combined Entity) | Announced collaboration (2025) to integrate Guardant's tumor profiling data with ConcertAI's clinical dataset; represents emerging competitive threat; strength in combined liquid biopsy + RWE offering; weakness vs. Tempus in tissue/pathology integration and dual diagnostics+data revenue model.
Illumina | Sequencing technology platform provider; indirect competitor/dependency; strength in sequencing infrastructure and market dominance; weakness in clinical analytics, diagnostics, and pharma data services vs. Tempus's applications layer.
IQVIA | Large contract research and healthcare data analytics company; 64 petabytes of data across broader healthcare (vs. Tempus's 250 petabytes focused on oncology); strength in scale and established pharma relationships; weakness in precision oncology focus, limited AI/genomics integration, and lacks diagnostics business.
Syapse | AI-powered precision medicine platform for health systems; strength in clinical workflow integration; weakness in scale, pharma relationships, and data assets vs. Tempus.
Owkin | AI biotech company focused on federated learning for drug discovery; strength in privacy-preserving distributed learning; weakness in direct diagnostics offering and patient-facing data assets vs. Tempus.
SOPHiA GENETICS | Digital health platform for genomic data interpretation; strength in NGS interpretation; weakness in scale, limited clinical/EHR integration, and narrow product portfolio vs. Tempus.
Inspirata, Inc. | Digital pathology and oncology AI platform; strength in pathology workflow; weakness in genomics integration and scale vs. Tempus's Paige platform.
Proscia | Digital pathology company competing with Paige; strength in pathology-specific focus and workflow; weakness in broader multimodal integration and scale vs. Tempus.
Roche (Broader Competitor) | Owns Foundation Medicine, Flatiron Health, and other precision medicine assets; strength in massive capital, pharma relationships, and established diagnostics business; threat: potential bundling of all assets (diagnostics + EHR data + genomics) to compete with Tempus's integrated offering.
Google Health | Tech giant entering precision medicine with AI/LLM approaches; potential future threat: superior AI/foundation models, massive capital, brand; weakness: limited clinical/healthcare domain expertise and data assets vs. Tempus.
Microsoft Research / Azure Health | Tech giant investing in healthcare AI; potential future threat: foundation models, cloud infrastructure, partnerships; weakness: limited clinical domain expertise and data assets vs. Tempus (though improving via partnerships).